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Link and Horizon choice-based lettings

About find a home.

On Find a Home you can apply for our social rented homes and bid for properties which become available.

We advertise around 850 properties each year for Link Group and Horizon.

When you apply, we ask for details about your housing need and allocate our properties to those who need them most.

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How to apply

If you are not already registered with Find a Home, please apply using this  application form . 

If you are already registered with Find a Home and your circumstances have changed please  log in and update your registration form .

If you were registered with Homehunt and are logging in for the first time, please  click here  to activate your Find a Home account.

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To see the properties we have available this week please visit our  search for properties page . You can express an interest in a property on this page.

We only allocate properties to people who have expressed interest in them.

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Social housing

Social housing is a type of affordable housing provided by councils and housing associations. You pay a monthly rent which is usually cheaper than a private rented housing, and you also get a secure tenancy agreement which gives you very strong rights. Because social housing is allocated on the basis of need, people who are in urgent housing need are given more priority than those who are not. 

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Housing options

Anyone can apply for social housing, but people who are not in urgent housing need may have to wait a long time to get an offer of a home. People who are not in urgent need may wish to consider other housing options that may suit them better, or result in getting a new home more quickly. For more information about the housing options Link Housing offer click on the link below.

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Mutual exchange

If you are social tenant already, you may wish to consider a mutual exchange. This is when two social tenants swap their homes with each other. Link Housing Association and Horizon Housing Association are part of Homeswapper, a national mutual exchange service that helps tenants find people to swap with. For more information click on the link below.

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MFAN and Hunt Military Communities partner to serve military families living in Hunt homes and beyond. Learn more here.  

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Your Home. Our Priority.

To our Valued Service Members and Families: PCS Delayed? We can help! Whether you are extending your move out date, or need an interim place to call home, Hunt Military Communities is here to assist. Please reach out to via phone, email or the contact us form and we will do all we can!

As we navigate COVID-19 together, we want to be sure we continue to be transparent in our communication and keep you updated on our plans. Community Updates - June 4, 2020

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Hunt is committed to ensuring the integrity of our military communities and the families who live there. We encourage residents to understand their rights. Click Here to view the Resident Bill of Rights.

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All of the Comforts of Home

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Hunt strives to provide service members and their families with expertly designed homes and vibrant, welcoming communities that make life comfortable, convenient, and enjoyable.

The passion for what we do is sparked by the fact that we are one of you. Many of us have personally served in the military while others have a family member or close friend who has served or is serving our country. This special bond with the armed forces allows us to understand first-hand some of the challenges military families face and helps drive our desire to take care of everyone who is a part of a Hunt Military Community.

We aim to provide more than just housing. We are entrusted to create quality communities that meet the needs of our residents and we take that responsibility very seriously. We are deeply committed to honoring and serving these heroes and their families.

When you live at a Hunt Military Community, you'll always feel at home.

See What We've Accomplished

We fully support the MHPI Tenant Bill of Rights and Universal Lease. View your rights HERE .

We fully support the MHPI Tenant Bill of Rights and Universal Lease.  View your rights HERE.

The development of a Universal Lease is monumental—this is the first of its kind—and we are proud of the work that has gone into this effort, and the work that will follow.

See our progress on the Universal Lease rollout here:

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Not all crisis looks the same. Stop Soldier Suicide is our promise to those who are facing it. Our struggles may be loud or silent; all-consuming or passing; during service or any time after; a moment or a lifetime.

We have a relentless focus on results. We don't just say we support vets - we actually save lives.

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Hunt Little Heroes

In honor of Month of the Military Child, Hunt Military Communities is pleased to launch its inaugural 'Hunt Little Heroes' program. Hunt Little Heroes celebrates the special moments that make our military families and their children heroes right here in our communities.

As part of the program, we want children of military families to share their "Hero Story" of what they think it takes to be a hero and how they've been a positive influence in their community.

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'GMA' Celebrates Military Kids Making a Difference in Their Communities

For Military Appreciation Month, "GMA" is teaming up with the Hunt Little Heroes Program to honor military kids.

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HMC Employees Featured in Military Makeover: Operation Career on Lifetime

Two Hunt Military Communities employees, Kamron Ibarra, Training Manager, and Jim Curtis, Director of Maintenance, were recently featured in Military Makeover: Operation Career on Lifetime. MilitaryMakeover: Operation Career, a special edition of Military Makeover, is hosted by Montel Williams, a veteran as well as a prominent advocate for veterans. OperationCareer highlights stories of military veterans who are transitioning from the service back to civilian life. The program profiles companies like Hunt that offer educational and employment opportunities to veterans to ensure a successful transition back into civilian life. Kamron and Jim shared their personal experiences as HMC employees who transitioned from military life to civilian life and the ways in which our culture meets the needs of veterans entering the workforce.

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Hunt Military Communities was recently recognized on the national PBS broadcast show SuccessFiles

We are the only Military Housing Developer chosen to do so. It was an honor to be a part of this highly watched program and to truly demonstrate what we offer our residents day-in and day-out.

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Stress Free PCS

Being in the military comes with many benefits and often, many moves. To make your transition from base to base easier, we have streamlined our move-in/move-out process and partnered with bases across the country, allowing us to help families get settled quickly. The Hunt Heart Program provides a resource guide of national, military, and local resources to help you with things such as how to connect with schools in the area, understand your local community, and on-base services. Our goal is to make sure your transition into our community is informative, simple, and stress-free.

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"Janet did a great job with getting us into our home while at Fort Gregg-Adams. She is the ultimate professional."

- Justin B. - Gregg-Adams Family Housing

"Great experience with Buckley Family Housing. I just PCS'd out after 3 years living here and it's great. Maria and Denise have always gone way above and beyond to help me. My house was beautiful and spacious with the added convenience of living on base near work, commissary, and child care. Definitely worth the BAH in my opinion."

- Lacey H. - Buckley Family Housing

"The staff have always been incredibly professional since we moved in 3 yrs ago. Freddie, the staff at Sandhill Landing and especially the maintenance team have always ensured things were taken care of promptly. We just wanted to say thank you all for all of your hard work."

- Capt. Christopher H. - Keesler Family Housing

"I love living where I feel safe, the kids can run around and play, and I don't have to worry about a thing when it comes to the home or bugs or anything! Highly recommend living here!"

- Dawn D. - Kirtland Family Housing

"Your staff is lovely. The homes are beautiful and maintenance is prompt when something is wrong. We're very pleased with our home and the staff."

- Monica A. - Patrick Family Housing

"I just wanted to let your team know how professional the folks assigned to Barksdale Housing are. Every time I go in to the office they want to help me out ..."

- Brandon C. - Barksdale Family Housing

"I've lived here since the spring of 2015 and, until I'm ready to buy a home, there's no other place I'd want to live. This community is close to two of the best schools in El Paso ISD, Dr. Nixon Elementary and Nolan Richardson Middle. The parks located within the community make this a perfect neighborhood to raise a family."

- Nina F. - Cottonwood Springs

"You guys have been great. Your staff does an outstanding job. I consider most of you all to be family. Keep up the good work!"

- Vincent S - Hunter's Cove Family Housing

"Shout out to the emergency maintenance guys on duty today! They arrived within 20 minutes of our no heat call, quickly determined this issue, ran back to the shop for supplies, and made the necessary repairs all within an hour. Very professional and efficient. Thank you!"

- Shawn R. - Kirtland Family Housing

Hunt Military Communities News:

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December 19th, 2023

Company Installs First TROES EV Charging Station at Barksdale AFB to Support  Sustainability Goals and Increasing Resident Demand

August 17th, 2023

Hunt Military Communities Foundation (HMCF), the non-profit organization founded by Hunt Military Communities (HMC), concluded their third annual Back-to-School Brigade®   program with Operation Homefront. In August, HMC delivered 2,064 backpacks filled with school supplies to military children living in HMC communities in the continental U.S. and Hawaii.

July 26th, 2023

A heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems upgrade project began on June 19, 2023 for select Moody housing communities. The renovation project aims to help further modernize housing for Moody's Airmen and help improve their quality of life.

July 14th, 2023

EL PASO, Texas (July 11, 2023)- Hunt Military Communities (HMC), the largest U.S. military housing owner, is investing $2,730,000 at Hanscom Air Force Base on boiler, air-handler, and HVAC replacement initiatives.

EL PASO, Texas (July 11, 2023) - Hunt Military Communities (HMC), the largest U.S. military housing owner, is investing $1,970,000 at Little Rock Air Force Base on initiatives including HVAC replacement and smoke detectors.

EL PASO, Texas (July 11, 2023) -- Hunt Military Communities (HMC), the largest U.S. military housing owner, is investing $3,707,000 at Patrick Air Force Base on new roofs in the North and Central neighborhoods.

EL PASO, Texas (July 11, 2023) - Hunt Military Communities (HMC), the largest U.S. military housing owner, is currently investing $3,400,000 at Moody Air Force Base on initiatives including HVAC replacement, an extensive sewer line replacement, and painting project.

February 9th, 2023

On February 1, 2023, at the annual Leadership Conference and Gala held in El Paso, Texas, the Hunt Heroes Foundation announced it is now named Hunt Military Communities Foundation. This change aligns with the foundation’s work with Hunt Military Communities employees and vendors who continue actively supporting the foundation’s programs and services.

January 12th, 2023

Hunt Heroes Foundation, the non-profit organization founded by Hunt Military Communities (Hunt), is excited to announce it has recently started accepting applications for its fifth annual HHF scholarship grants. Hunt will award $50,000 to deserving applicants.

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HousingLink Data & Research

Rental revue data.

HousingLink's  Rental Revue Data  is a unique policy and analysis resource featuring thousands of public-facing vacancy listings per quarter in the state of Minnesota. Rental Revue Data  consists of two components:

  • A larger set of private market rents with address-level records containing advertised rent amount, number of bedrooms, and building type (including both multifamily and the "shadow market" of single family home, duplex, condo, and townhome).
  • A smaller subset of data derived form HousingLink's own Housing Search service, with an expanded array of vacancy listing attributes (background checks, application fees, amenities, etc.) as well as availability of affordable homes (subsidized housing wait lists, Section 8 acceptance, etc.).

Individually or in concert the two components of our Rental Revue Data  set have contributed to a number of regional policy and community development collaborations  as well as specific custom research needs related to market analyses, rent reasonableness projects, and housing studies.

  • Twin Cities Rental Housing Trends : An interactive, rolling, 12-month visualization of key rental market trends in the Twin Cities.
  • Twin Cities Rental Revue :  A subscription-based quarterly median rent report for multifamily, single family, duplex, condo, and townhome rentals in the Twin Cities metro area.
  • Minneapolis Rental Housing Brief and St Paul Rental Housing Brief : Monthly reports on the state of rental housing in the cities of Minneapolis and St Paul.
  • Hennepin County Affordable Listings Report   : A quarterly report featuring a summary of affordable listings in Hennepin County and intended for use by developers and policymakers with an interest in affordable housing.
  • MN Housing Measures : Private market rent data contributes to this annually-updated, interactive visualization of three key measures related to affordable rental housing in Minnesota, in partnership with  The McKnight Foundation .
  • Twin Cities Rent Trends : Building on work by HousingLink and The McKnight Foundation  with the University of Minnesota's Carlson Analytics Lab , Met Council 's interactive tool that visualizes rent and vacancy trends for cities, townships, and neighborhoods in the Twin Cities region. 

Streams Data

HousingLink tracks all publicly-funded rental properties in the state of MN that have and in-force affordability restriction or direct subsidy, along with attributes that include known addresses, units by bedroom and level of affordability, and funding sources. HousingLink products that include this data are:

  • Streams : HousingLink’s free, searchable database of subsidized rental housing in the Twin Cities.
  • Housing Counts : An annual report of affordable housing production and preservation in the Twin Cities Metro, in partnership with Family Housing Fund .
  • MN Housing Measures : Streams data contributes to this annually-updated, interactive visualization of three key measures related to affordable rental housing in Minnesota, in partnership with The McKnight Foundation .

What's New in HousingLink Research! Renters and Landlords in the Pandemic Twin Cities Rental Housing Trends Streams Minneapolis Rental Housing Brief St Paul Rental Housing Brief Twin Cities Rental Revue MN Housing Measures Housing Counts Hennepin Co Affordable Listings Report Other Research Archive

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The hottest trend in U.S. cities? Changing zoning rules to allow more housing

Laurel Wamsley at NPR headquarters in Washington, D.C., November 7, 2018. (photo by Allison Shelley)

Laurel Wamsley

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A view of the Kingfield neighborhood from the roof of the Sundial Building, a new 12-unit apartment building in Minneapolis. Tim Evans for NPR hide caption

A view of the Kingfield neighborhood from the roof of the Sundial Building, a new 12-unit apartment building in Minneapolis.

America is facing a housing crisis.

The U.S. is short millions of housing units. Half of renters are paying more than a third of their salary in housing costs, and for those looking to buy, scant few homes on the market are affordable for a typical household.

To ramp up supply, cities are taking a fresh look at their zoning rules that spell out what can be built where and what can't. And many are finding that their old rules are too rigid, making it too hard and too expensive to build many new homes.

So these cities, as well as some states, are undertaking a process called zoning reform. They're crafting new rules that do things like allow multifamily homes in more neighborhoods, encourage more density near transit and streamline permitting processes for those trying to build.

One city has been at the forefront of these conversations: Minneapolis.

That's because Minneapolis was ahead of the pack as it made a series of changes to its zoning rules in recent years: allowing more density downtown and along transit corridors, getting rid of parking requirements, permitting construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs), which are secondary dwellings on the same lot.

And one change in particular made national news: The city ended single-family zoning, allowing two- and three-unit homes to be built in every neighborhood.

Why Sprawl Could Be The Next Big Climate Change Battle

Environment

Why sprawl could be the next big climate change battle.

Researchers at The Pew Charitable Trusts examined the effects of the changes between 2017 and 2022, as many of the city's most significant zoning reforms came into effect.

They found what they call a " blueprint for housing affordability ."

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The brick facade of the Sundial Building. Tim Evans for NPR hide caption

The brick facade of the Sundial Building.

"We saw Minneapolis add 12% to its housing stock in just that five-year period, far more than other cities," Alex Horowitz, director of housing policy initiatives at Pew, told NPR.

The researchers also examined what kind of housing was built. They found that for all the hubbub about duplexes and triplexes in former single-family-only areas, very few have been built. One reason is that they still had to be the same size as a single-family home, making them less feasible to build.

Instead, the vast majority of new housing was in midsize apartment buildings with 20 or more units.

"The zoning reforms made apartments feasible. They made them less expensive to build. And they were saying yes when builders submitted applications to build apartment buildings. So they got a lot of new housing in a short period of time," says Horowitz.

That supply increase appears to have helped keep rents down too. Rents in Minneapolis rose just 1% during this time, while they increased 14% in the rest of Minnesota.

Horowitz says cities such as Minneapolis, Houston and Tysons, Va., have built a lot of housing in the last few years and, accordingly, have seen rents stabilize while wages continue to rise, in contrast with much of the country.

In Houston, policymakers reduced minimum lot sizes from 5,000 square feet to 1,400. That spurred a town house boom that helped increase the housing stock enough to slow rent growth in the city, Horowitz says.

From Austin to Anchorage, U.S. cities opt to ditch their off-street parking minimums

From Austin to Anchorage, U.S. cities opt to ditch their off-street parking minimums

Allowing more housing, creating more options.

Now, these sorts of changes are happening in cities and towns around the country. Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley built a zoning reform tracker and identified zoning reform efforts in more than 100 municipal jurisdictions in the U.S. in recent years.

Milwaukee , New York City and Columbus, Ohio , are all undertaking reform of their codes. Smaller cities are winning accolades for their zoning changes too, including Walla Walla, Wash. , and South Bend, Indiana .

Zoning reform looks different in every city, according to each one's own history and housing stock. But the messaging that city leaders use to build support for these changes often has certain terms in common: "gentle density," building " missing middle " housing and creating more choices.

Sara Moran, 33, moved from Houston to Minneapolis a few months ago, where she lives in a new 12-unit apartment building called the Sundial Building , in the Kingfield neighborhood. The building is brick, three stories and super energy efficient — and until just a few years ago, it couldn't be built. For one thing, there's no off-street parking.

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Sara Moran sold her condo in Houston and moved to Minneapolis. Her new apartment is next to a bakery and close to bike paths. Tim Evans for NPR hide caption

Sara Moran sold her condo in Houston and moved to Minneapolis. Her new apartment is next to a bakery and close to bike paths.

"It was exactly what I was looking for," Moran says of her 450-square-foot space, on a cold but sunny day in January. "I specifically wanted a smaller apartment because it takes less time to maintain. You can spend more time traveling because you're not paying as much for a big apartment, and then it's a little easier to live in whatever neighborhood you like."

Now, she rides her e-bike out her patio door, and there's a bus stop on the corner and a bakery next door. "There's just so much I can do in terms of walking to things, biking to things," Moran says, adding that she hasn't biked in sub-10-degree temperatures just yet. "I think I might use that bus if it stays under 10 degrees long."

The Sundial is the sort of building many cities want more of: housing that offers options for people at different income levels and different stages in their lives, in neighborhoods that already have amenities like restaurants and transit routes.

The U.S. needs more affordable housing — where to put it is a bigger battle

The U.S. needs more affordable housing — where to put it is a bigger battle

Meg McMahan, planning director for the city of Minneapolis, says the Sundial is a good example of how these reforms can make more housing units possible in more places.

It's no accident that throwing out the parking rules was vital to the Sundial's construction. "The elimination of parking requirements has been the most effective regulatory reform we have made," McMahan says.

"We're really dealing with outdated and inequitable regulations"

Cities' zoning rules often stand in the way of building much new housing.

A 2019 analysis by The New York Times looked at 11 U.S. cities and suburbs and found that in most of them, 75% or more of the residential land is zoned to allow only detached, single-family homes. No rowhouses, no apartments. In Connecticut, researchers found that three-unit homes are permitted by right on just 2.5% of the state's land and that nine towns allow only single-family housing.

"We're really dealing with outdated and inequitable regulations that in too many places really have choked housing supply," says Angela Brooks, president of the American Planning Association, which has made zoning reform one of its top priorities.

Zoning regulations can be exclusionary in several ways, says Nolan Gray, an urban planner and the author of the book Arbitrary Lines: How Zoning Broke the American City and How to Fix It .

"If you look at the origins of policies like single-family zoning, they were fairly explicitly designed to segregate cities both on the basis of socioeconomic status and then, of course, race," he says. "The ability to determine what type of housing can be built where is the ability to determine who gets to live where. And so if you say, well, 'You're only allowed to live here if you can afford a detached single-family home on a 7,500-square-foot lot,' you're excluding a lot of people."

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The Sundial is located between neighborhood houses and a larger mixed-use building along Nicollet Avenue. Tim Evans for NPR hide caption

The Sundial is located between neighborhood houses and a larger mixed-use building along Nicollet Avenue.

A 'Forgotten History' Of How The U.S. Government Segregated America

A 'Forgotten History' Of How The U.S. Government Segregated America

Gray is also research director at California YIMBY, a group that advocates for more housing. He's glad to see several cities in the Midwest and the South take on reform efforts like those underway in California, before their housing prices skyrocket.

"Most American cities and most American states have rules on the books that make it really, really hard to build more infill housing," he says. "So if you want a California-style housing crisis, don't do anything. But if you want to avoid the fate of states like California, learn some of the lessons of what we've been doing over the last few years and allow for more of that infill, mixed-income housing."

California is among those taking on zoning reform at the state level, in recent years passing lots of legislation to address the state's housing crisis, including a law that requires cities and counties to permit accessory dwelling units . Now, construction of ADUs is booming, with more than 28,000 of the units permitted in California in 2022.

Some zoning reform efforts have hit roadblocks, however. Changes to allow denser housing in Montana and Austin, Texas , have been blocked by judges after lawsuits from homeowners. And in Minneapolis, part of the comprehensive plan that put an end to single-family zoning is on hold after a judge ordered an environmental impact review. The city is appealing the decision and asking the state legislature to change the law.

Some states are making it harder to bring legal challenges to these reforms on the basis of environmental impact reviews, says Vicki Been, faculty director at the NYU Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy.

"You're seeing states — California, Oregon, Washington — saying you can't challenge an environmental impact review on the basis of traffic congestion, which is just a very difficult analysis to do," says Been.

And the national housing picture is starting to change. At least half a million apartments were completed last year, and nearly 1.7 million housing units are currently under construction. Rents are starting to level off .

"Mountains of minutiae that matter"

Jim Kumon and his wife, Faith, are the developers who built the Sundial Building where Moran lives. The Kumons live in the building now, too, with their children.

Kumon also happens to be a zoning connoisseur and has consulted with cities including neighboring St. Paul, which passed a major overhaul of its zoning code in October. He says St. Paul learned some things by watching the implementation in Minneapolis, especially when it comes to 1-to-6-unit buildings.

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Jim Kumon, co-owner of the Sundial Building, also lives there with his family. Tim Evans for NPR hide caption

Jim Kumon, co-owner of the Sundial Building, also lives there with his family.

For instance, he says, on a lot that already has a single-family home on it, it's far easier to put a duplex in the backyard than to build a new triplex where the house is standing. So if you want to encourage more lots with three units, the code should allow different formats.

Rent costs are leveling off and even dropping around the U.S.

Kumon says that whenever the legal challenge is resolved, Minneapolis will be able to learn from the other cities that have followed its lead. And while zoning can be a weedy topic, it's a vitally important one, says Kumon.

"There are so many things we talk about that don't actually move that meter" to produce housing in the U.S., he says. "This is one of those thankless mountains of minutiae that matter. This really matters."

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Ritzy ski resort towns like Telluride are going into debt to build affordable housing because their teachers can’t afford to live there

Telluride

Telluride , a ski resort destination in Colorado, is the first vacation town to sell municipal bonds for affordable housing this year. It likely won’t be the last.

The reason for last week’s sale is immediately apparent by typing “Homes for Sale Telluride Colorado” in an Internet browser. The  websites  that appear show that anyone wanting to buy a house there will need millions of dollars, maybe tens of millions.

So Telluride is “prioritizing” the acquisition and construction of affordable rental housing. Last week, Telluride School District R-1 borrowed $31.8 million, half of which will be used to pay for 25 units of “workforce housing.”

The wealthy ski area has tapped the bond market for similar reasons several times in recent years. Just last month the town borrowed $9 million, a portion of which is being used to pay to refurbish affordable housing at an apartment building. In 2022, the town council approved spending more than $27 million for a project containing another 27 units of affordable housing. Five years earlier, the school district borrowed $2.5 million for more of the same.  

“If there are no homes, I can’t fill positions,” Christine Reich, director of finance and nutrition for the  school district , said in a telephone interview.

Reich’s words are echoed by local officials in vacation areas nationwide. Towns heavy on quaintness and charm but light on housing supply have squeezed out locals, both ordinary and essential purpose workers, from shop help to police, firefighters and teachers.

Last year, the island of Nantucket off Cape Cod and the town of Wellfleet on the Cape each sold bonds for so-called workforce housing. Another Colorado ski town, Vail, did so in 2021. And it’s not just vacation towns borrowing money to build affordable housing. Some  colleges and universities , too, have sold bonds to pay for faculty housing, such as the University of Vermont and Middlebury College.

In Telluride, salaries in the school district range from an entry-level $50,000 to $94,665 for someone with a master’s degree and 27 years of experience. But market-rate rentals in the town run from $4,000 to $5,000 per month for a one-bedroom apartment.

“We’re remote,” said Reich. “It’s not as though you can commute in from Denver,” a six-and-a-half hour drive away.

Only 55% of Telluride’s housing is occupied by full-time residents, according to  Treasure Walker , associate director at S&P Global Ratings. The remainder is typically used as short-term rentals and vacation homes in a town with a population of 2,620. 

“There’s a hyper supply-constrained environment,” said Bill Fandel, the founding broker of Compass real estate in Telluride. He said that in a small town “the cost of the dirt becomes prohibitive,”referring to the space needed to build housing. 

The school district, which is 326 square miles, includes the towns of Telluride, Ophir, Sawpit and Mountain Village and parts of unincorporated San Miguel County, and has a population of 6,515. It also has an “exceptionally high” full value per capita (the value of all the property divided by the population) of $2.1 million, according to Moody’s Investors Service, which rates the bonds Aa2. The US median is $117,713.

“The district is a second-home destination for the very wealthy,” Moody’s said. “This, coupled with an influx of residents seeking an outdoor lifestyle during the pandemic, is driving a high cost of living and challenging the district’s ability to recruit and retain teachers.”   

The district currently provides housing to about 10% of its 136 full-time and 16 part-time personnel and wants to increase this to one-third. Base rents are 25% of salary.

Already there is a waiting list for the proposed affordable housing.

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Elon Musk claims Neuralink’s first patient implanted with brain chip can already move a computer mouse with their mind

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Gen Z and millennials proudly wear ‘lab-grown’ diamonds, oblivious to the fact they’re made from burning coal in China and India

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Customer demand for Nvidia chips is so far above supply that CEO Jensen Huang had to discuss how ‘fairly’ the company decides who can buy them

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Have kids? Good luck buying a house this year

Homebuyers with children are being boxed out of the housing market.

'Mansion Global' host Katrina Campins has the latest on the real estate market on 'The Bottom Line.'

Tight inventory is keeping housing prices elevated: Katrina Campins

'Mansion Global' host Katrina Campins has the latest on the real estate market on 'The Bottom Line.'

Families with kids are being boxed out of the increasingly unaffordable U.S. housing market as the cost of both a new mortgage and child care soar higher. 

A recent study published by Zillow found that potential homebuyers with children are likely to spend 66% of their income on monthly mortgage payments and child care, a sharp increase from about 50% in 2019.

The typical American family can expect to spend about $1,984 per month on child care and $1,973 on a monthly mortgage payment (based on an interest rate of 6.6%). With the monthly median household income hovering around $6,640, that leaves just $2,683 for other necessary expenses, including food, health care, insurance, transportation, retirement savings and education.

Home for sale in Cupertino, California

A home for sale in Cupertino, California, on Feb. 7, 2024. (Photographer: Loren Elliott/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The general rule of thumb is that housing should cost no more than 30% of a person's monthly income, while the Department of Health and Human Services recommends that families spend no more than 7% of their income on child care expenses.

But the typical household exceeds these guidelines in every market that Zillow analyzed, a trend that underscores how far out of reach the American dream has become for millions of families.

MORTGAGE CALCULATOR: SEE HOW MUCH HIGHER RATES COULD COST YOU

In fact, in 31 of the largest 50 metropolitan areas with available child care cost data, families looking to buy a home can expect to spend more than 60% of their income on their mortgage and child care expenses.

The cost burden is even worse in some parts of the country. Parents in Los Angeles and San Diego would need to dedicate a respective 121% and 113% of their income to pay for child care and a mortgage. In both Boston and Seattle, families would need to spend 92%.

A classroom in Wisconsin

A classroom at The Growing Tree Academy in New Glarus, Wisconsin, on Sept. 13, 2023. (Photo by Matthew Ludak for The Washington Post via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Housing affordability is the worst it's been in decades, thanks to a spike in home prices and mortgage rates. Combined, the two have helped to push the typical portion of average wages nationwide required for major homeownership expenses up to 33%.

There are several reasons to blame for the affordability crisis.

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The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hike campaign sent mortgage rates soaring above 8% for the first time in nearly two decades last year. Rates have been slow to retreat, hovering near 7% as hotter-than-expected inflation data dashed investors' hopes for immediate rate cuts.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose to 6.77% last week, Freddie Mac reported, well above the pandemic-era lows of 3%.

Even though mortgage rates are nearly double what they were three years ago, home prices have hardly budged. That is largely due to a lack of available homes for sale. Sellers who locked in a low mortgage rate before the pandemic began have been reluctant to sell, leaving few options for eager would-be buyers.

"This rapid home price appreciation, coupled with mortgage rates that recently hit decades-long highs, means many home buyers must make trade-offs in order to afford other necessary expenses, such as child care," the Zillow analysis said.

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House Hunting: Everything You Need to Know

9 Min Read | Feb 16, 2024

Ramsey

If you think house hunting is like trying to find toilet paper during a pandemic, you’re not alone. More than half of home buyers say finding the right home is the most challenging step of the home-buying process. 1 But don’t let that get you down. If you stay focused, you’ll find the home of your dreams!

To keep calm during your home search, it helps to know that most buyers search for 10 weeks and go to seven home showings before they find the home they buy. 2 In the middle of all that, it can be easy to lose focus and forget what kind of house fits your budget and lifestyle. But our house-hunting tips will show you exactly how to buy a home that’s right for you!

What Should I Do Before House Hunting?

Before you hit the pavement with a handful of listings, make sure you check off these boxes first:

  • Know how much house you can afford.  While it’s important to sit down and write a list of must-haves for your new home (especially if you’re married), it’s silly to go looking for one without considering  how much you can afford . You’ll risk falling in love with a house that’ll pulverize you in monthly payments! Your mortgage payment (including private mortgage insurance, HOA, property taxes and homeowner’s insurance) should be no more than 25% of your take-home pay. 
  • Save for your down payment.  If you save anything less than a down payment of  at least  5–10% of the total house price, the extra amount you’ll pay in interest and fees will suffocate your other financial goals. We recommend a down payment of 20% to avoid paying private mortgage insurance (PMI). You can use our  Mortgage Calculator  to enter your down payment amount and test out different house prices within the budget. 
  • Get preapproved for a mortgage.   Getting preapproved  takes a little work on the front end, but it pays off when you find the house you want. When you include a preapproval letter with your offer, it tells the seller you’re a serious buyer. A 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is your best bet to avoid gigantic interest payments over the life of the loan. If you’re ready to get preapproved, connect with our friends at  Churchill Mortgage . 
  • Find a real estate agent.  An agent gives you access to a multiple listing service (more on that later) and simplifies the rest of your home-buying steps toward a great house and a great price. You can’t afford to go without a real estate agent !

Got questions about these steps? Take a look at our free Home Buyers Guide .

With the right agent, taking on the housing market can be easy.

Buy or sell your home with an agent the Ramsey team trusts.

How to Find a House

How do buyers find homes? Most of them use the internet or a real estate agent. Drive-by viewings just aren’t going to cut it anymore, folks. In fact, the National Association of REALTORS® reports that 51% of buyers—that’s right,  half  of all buyers—found the home they purchased on the internet, while 29% found theirs through a real estate agent. 3

Use a Multiple Listing Service for Top Accuracy

House hunting can drive you crazy if the listings aren’t accurate. Did you find the perfect home?  Whoops!  It sold last week. See a price that fits your budget?  Sorry!  That price went up. Doesn’t sound fun, does it? That’s why you want to go house hunting with access to a multiple listing service—a fancy real estate term you’ll hear a lot during your home search.

home hunt link housing

Find expert agents to help you buy your home.

A multiple listing service (MLS) is a private database of available homes for sale—compiled and managed by real estate professionals for up-to-date status information and accuracy. Agents have to pay a fee to be part of an MLS because it helps their properties get more exposure to potential buyers like you. It also gives them access to a larger pool of properties to show to their own buyers.

Find an Agent to Get Serious

You see, only licensed real estate agents have access to an MLS. So, when you go house hunting with a real estate agent, you get an insider’s look at the latest listings (sometimes even  before  they hit the market) and always have the most accurate information about properties you find.

And if you share your list of must-haves (including your max price) with your agent, they’ll help you set realistic expectations and target your search to areas you can afford. They can also guide you through the home-buying process to make sure you get the best deal with no surprises.

Browse the Internet for Ideas

Many house-hunting apps and websites like Zillow and Trulia allow anyone to post a listing for free, which means some of the properties might have outdated or unreliable information. However, these online services have become so popular among house hunters that many MLS brokers strike a deal to get their listings added. So, look for apps and websites that rely heavily on MLS data.

What Are the Best Apps and Websites for House Hunting?

Your agent will always have the latest and greatest information, but if you want to  browse homes online  to get the lay of the land, check out the house-hunting apps and websites available to buyers today. Here are some of the best:

  • Realtor.com:  Imagine falling in love with a home only to learn it was already sold and the listing was never updated. Frustrating, right? Well, Realtor.com boasts listings that are updated on an average of at least every 15 minutes. That’ll help you avoid chucking your phone across the room.
  • Zillow:  It features everything you’d think a house-hunting app should include—plus the unique “Zestimate” tool that estimates the market value of each house listing. It’s no appraisal, but it might give you a heads up if the asking price is a complete rip-off.
  • Trulia:  If you’re a sucker for maps and stats, you’ll like Trulia (which is owned by Zillow). Its property listings include interactive maps that show nearby schools and shopping centers, and it also has heat maps with data on crime rates, commute times and demographics to give you an instant idea of what life is like in that community. 
  • Redfin Real Estate:  Unlike the others we mentioned, this house-hunting app was developed by a real estate brokerage. Each listing features a question box you can click to learn more about the house. You can also see the next available house showing by date and then click to schedule your tour.

After you’ve had fun seeing what’s out there, connect with your real estate agent to narrow down your search to the home that’s just right for you and your budget.

House-Hunting Tips

Now that you have some house-hunting tools and an agent in your corner, you’re ready for the hunt. You can avoid some common house-hunting mistakes and score the home of your dreams by following these tips:

Tip 1: Keep looking until you find your price range.

Every housing market is different. House prices can range from affordable to never-in-your-wildest-dreams. Don’t let one ridiculous price stop you dead in your tracks and make you think you’ll never find a home that fits your budget.

Don’t give up! And rely on the advice of your agent—they’re a seasoned pro. A house is one of the biggest investments you’ll ever make. Do the math to know how much house you can afford and stick to that number.

Tip 2: Pay attention to location and layout.

Hate the decorations? Disgusted by the paint colors? Get over it. You can fix those later. But there’s nothing you can do about a lousy neighborhood and crummy floorplan or a 20-minute drive to the nearest grocery store. So don’t compromise on things you can’t change. Look for a community and layout that fits your lifestyle. And for a good deal, be open-minded about those harvest gold appliances.

Tip 3: Consider the size.

How much space does your family need? Remember, your budget should have the final say on how much home you buy. But to give you an idea of what people are buying, recent data shows most buyers purchased homes that were 1,800 square feet and built in 1986 with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. 4

Tip 4: Evaluate the school districts.

If you have kids, the quality of the surrounding schools is obviously a big deal that’s already on your mind. But even if you don’t have kids, a home located near good schools could increase the value of your home when it’s time to sell.

Tip 5: Think about home value growth.

Don’t just go for a nice porch or spacious yard. Look for a home that’ll grow in value over time. Research the history of home values and businesses in that area. Are home values rising? Are new businesses opening? Those are good signs!

Also, try to find a home at the bottom price range in the best neighborhood you can afford. You don’t want to get stuck trying to sell a $300,000 house to future buyers who are shopping in a $200,000 neighborhood.

Tip 6: Ask questions while viewing the house.

Ask a ton of questions when you’re touring the house to make sure it’s truly your ideal home. Your real estate agent can help you with this as well. Here are questions to ask sellers when you view a home :

  • What’s included in the sale? (Does the price include things like appliances?)
  • When were the appliances and other systems last updated? (Look at the HVAC, plumbing, hot water heater, septic tank, washer and dryer, refrigerator, oven and dishwasher.)
  • How old is the roof?
  • What are the neighbors like?
  • Have there ever been any pest infestations?
  • What’s it like to live there in winter and summer?
  • What do you love most about the house?
  • What problems have you experienced with the house?

And there you have it, folks!

Start House Hunting

Whew! That’s a lot to throw at you. But if you follow these house-hunting tips, you’ll do great. If you want to be confident in your search, connect with one of our RamseyTrusted real estate agents. They’re pros who know your local market and can help you find your perfect home!

  • Decide when and where you want to move.
  • Interview at least three local agents we trust.
  • Choose one who’s right for you and start your moving journey.

Did you find this article helpful? Share it!

Ramsey Solutions

About the author

Ramsey Solutions has been committed to helping people regain control of their money, build wealth, grow their leadership skills, and enhance their lives through personal development since 1992. Millions of people have used our financial advice through 22 books (including 12 national bestsellers) published by Ramsey Press, as well as two syndicated radio shows and 10 podcasts, which have over 17 million weekly listeners. Learn More.

What to Look for When Buying a House

When you’re buying a house, it can be difficult to know what to look for and what to avoid. Having this handy checklist will ease those worries and help you buy with confidence.

George Kamel

Homeowner Associations (HOA): Everything You Need to Know

A homeowners association (HOA) sets and upholds rules in order to maintain and enhance property value in housing communities. If you buy a home in an HOA community, you’ll be required to pay dues.

Ramsey

The Hottest U.S. Housing Markets

Each typically includes a mix of improving demand, supply and financing alternatives.

Sunset on an Autumn day over the downtown Denver skyline with wispy dramatic clouds reflecting in the buildings and skyscrapers.

Getty Images

The Mile-High City is once again named the hottest MSA overall.

Key Takeaways:

  • While the 20 top hottest housing markets are again located in Colorado, North Carolina, Florida and Texas, they’re also located in Tennessee, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona. Three of the top five hottest markets in both June and December were Durham, Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina, mostly thanks to strong buyer demand and relatively high affordability.
  • Markets to watch that improved the most between June and December 2023 include Cleveland, Virginia Beach, Virginia, and Detroit. Cleveland's HMI score jumped 8.8 points to 62.3, mostly due to a rise in its demand index thanks to a rapidly improving job market accompanied by a falling unemployment rate.
  • The most resilient markets that improved between December 2022 and December 2023 were led by Greeley, Colorado, Miami, Oklahoma City and San Jose, California. Greeley’s HMI score spiked up 13.2 points to 68.6, mostly due to an improving supply index resulting from a moderate increase in inventory coupled with a surge in homebuilder confidence.

Despite 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rates falling to about 6.8% from October’s highs, which approached 8.0%, the national U.S. housing market remains somewhat frozen given the huge share of existing owners locked in place with mortgages well below 6%.

However, with continuing signs that inflation is ebbing and predictions that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting its own rates by the middle of 2024, if mortgage rates also decline, the market should slowly begin to thaw with more transactions. Still, since this thaw will not be equal for each housing market, buyers and sellers armed with the most research will be in the best position to jump into the market when the timing is right.

Our analysis of the hottest housing markets pulls from the U.S. News Housing Market Index, which incorporates a wide array of data points and provides a simple yet comprehensive way to rank the covered metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) from frozen to blazing on a scale of 1-100. This particular ranking is based on data from December 2023.

Hottest Markets Overall

With Housing Market Index totals ranging up to 74.8 versus the lowest scores under 55.0 for MSAs in Hawaii and California, the following MSAs are the hottest housing markets ranked from first to fifth:

  • Denver – 74.8
  • Raleigh, North Carolina – 73.7
  • Virginia Beach, Virginia – 73.2
  • Durham, North Carolina – 72.8
  • Charlotte, North Carolina – 72.0

During the COVID-19 pandemic, these markets benefited from unusually low mortgage rates and the desire for more living space. They still remain popular even as more workers have returned to offices and higher mortgage rates have made buying less affordable. In addition, most of these MSAs also offer the types of amenities found in larger cities without the downsides of a huge metro area such as New York, Los Angeles or Chicago.

The Hottest MSA Overall

Once again named the hottest MSA overall, the Denver MSA retains a mix of strengths including low unemployment, few mortgage delinquencies, low rental vacancy rates for investors and a positive ratio of building permits to job growth.

However, a low housing supply of just 1.9 months at December’s sales rates and a low ratio of building permits to new household growth will continue to support home prices while maintaining a floor on rents until more housing inventory is available.

Here’s a deeper look at the various data points regularly tracked by the Housing Market Interface for this MSA:

home hunt link housing

The overall Housing Market Index of 74.8 for the Denver MSA rose 7.4 points year-over-year through December and was up from 73.2 in June. The three subindexes covering demand, supply and financial factors for December are also calculated on the same scale of 1-100.

  • Demand HMI – 78.9 (76.1 in June)
  • Supply HMI – 52.1 (50.1 in June)
  • Financial – 93.5 (93.5 in June)

Despite a loss of 14,600 jobs year-over-year through December (or a decline of 1.2%), the Denver unemployment rate remains low at 3.3%. A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the highest percentage job declines in categories including financial activities, information and mining, logging and construction versus increases in other services and government.

Due to more multifamily homes being built for sale and for rent in recent years, the mix of building permits in the Denver MSA had been gradually tilting away from single-family homes , but that trend reversed itself in 2023. More recently, the split in permits between the two housing sectors has hovered closer to the 50/50 level. This fall is due to an abundance of new apartments needing to be absorbed into the marketplace as well as fewer condominiums being built.

home hunt link housing

Since reaching a high of $595,000 in June, the median sales price in the Denver MSA continued to fall through the rest of the year to $550,000. Even with this decline, the median price was down just 0.2% year-over-year. The national median sales price rose 4.0% year-over-year to nearly $404,000, making Denver's median price about 36% higher than the national average.

Although up slightly from 1.8 months a year ago, the supply timeline of homes for sale in Denver at 1.9 months in December is still lower than a national supply of 2.6 months. If a healthy supply timeline is closer to four to six months, it’s likely that prices will remain elevated for both Denver and the nation until more supply is released for sale.

Local Experts Weigh In

According to Tom Hayden, president of Denver-based Peak Economics Research & Consulting, which focuses on Colorado homebuilding and development, while the region has long been a destination location, as the economy has diversified over the last 15 to 20 years, it has only become more popular. He also says that the low levels of housing supply are even tighter than official stats might suggest.

“Resales have plummeted to 1.9 months, and that’s deceiving because the meat of the market is closer to 1.5 months since the additional supply (over that level) is priced mostly over $1.5 million,” Hayden says. “Homebuilders halted starts sharply in the fall of 2022 due to a spike in cancellations and they’ve been really slow to restart until the last two quarters.”

Lauryn Dempsey, a real estate agent and broker specializing in the Denver and Boulder markets, says interest in the housing market rose even more in early January. “Our phones started ringing in January and it is a completely different market than it was last year,” she says. “It took some time for the data to catch up, and multiple offers have become more prevalent since January 2nd.”

In a frenzied market with competition rising but listings subdued, Dempsey counsels buyers and sellers to reach out earlier instead of doing research online and waiting to contact a real estate agent. In one recent case, she pushed a buyer to move up his search from March to January to get a jump on the selling season even if that meant breaking his rental lease, adding, “ Breaking a lease is cheaper than waiting for home prices to rise and to find the right place.”

Looking ahead to the rest of 2024 and beyond, Dempsey sees the rising costs of property taxes and homeowners insurance pushing more homeowners into financial distress even if they're sitting on low mortgage rates or own their homes free and clear.

Other owners have overleveraged themselves by purchasing homes with the expectation that continued low mortgage rates coupled with significant remodels would bring huge returns, yet they failed to realize that these remodels were not a good fit for the local neighborhood. To avoid this, Dempsey says, "Talk to a real estate agent before you even start the project and know what the buyers are looking for as well."

As for addressing affordability, while homebuilders are increasingly offering more traditional townhomes , duplex options and what Hayden calls "standalone skinny product," such as detached townhomes, for now new condominium flats are just 3% to 4% of the market due to construction defect laws that remain overly favorable to lawyers. While he adds that there’s “lots of policy discussion going on this year” to encourage more condominium development, he doesn’t expect any practical impact until at least 2025.

Another key advantage builders enjoy versus most sellers of existing homes is the ability to buy down mortgage rates to as low as 4% to 5%, helping to reduce the payment shock of higher home prices. As builders get increasingly comfortable building speculative homes to meet demand, that could mean more standing inventory with higher incentives to buyers.

Still, Dempsey cautions against shopping for the lowest mortgage rate alone. "Too many people are shopping for cost over value and they don't get the right advice," she says. "Go with a lender who understands the local market, and Movement Mortgage is also offering buydowns to compete with builders."

Both Hayden and Dempsey agree that Denver home prices tend to rise in tandem with their proximity to the Rocky Mountains, especially for buyers who can pair this proximity and related views with the convenience and amenities of an urban lifestyle. Even if the housing market here is far more expensive than it was just a few years ago, it's still more affordable than other markets along the coasts.

Rental Growth Slowing Due to Higher Vacancy Levels

Zillow shows the median rent in Denver rising 3.1% year-over-year to $1,992. This median rent is 1.8% higher than the national level of $1,957, which rose by a similar percentage rate of 3.3% year-over-year through December.

With more households forced to rent as mortgage rates have risen, vacancy rates for rental properties in Denver fell to 4.6% during the fourth quarter of 2023. Besides being below the national vacancy rate of 6.6%, because the vacancy rate is also below the 5% equilibrium level for rental supply and demand, for now Denver remains a landlord’s market.

Official Signs of Homeowners in Financial Distress Remain Low

In December, the rate of mortgage delinquencies of 1.8% in the Denver MSA was half of the national rate of 3.6% and was unchanged year-over-year. The rate of foreclosures at just 0.1% also remains low and stable and remains a fraction of the national level of 0.4%.

Markets to Watch

Another way to analyze the MSAs tracked by the Housing Market Index is to watch changes over several months. Between June and December 2023, even as mortgage rates continued to slowly rise before starting to subside in November, a gradually improving job market helped markets such as Cleveland, Virginia Beach, Detroit and Oklahoma City boost their overall HMI scores by almost four to nine points.

Most Resilient Markets

Given the deterioration in housing market demand over the past year, in which the national HMI Demand index fell by up to 19 points, a third way to analyze different MSAs is to compare their levels of resiliency. For this ranking, the leaders included Greeley , Miami , Oklahoma City and San Jose , with their own regional HMI levels rising by over nine to 13 points since June.

Hottest Markets for Housing Demand

The HMI Demand subindex includes government data on employment, unemployment, household growth, consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, median home sales prices from Redfin, and observed, smoothed housing rental prices from Zillow.

  • Raleigh, North Carolina – 79.2
  • Denver – 78.9
  • Durham, North Carolina – 77.6
  • Virginia Beach, Virginia – 77.2
  • Boise City, Idaho – 72.5

Hottest Markets for Housing Supply

The Supply HMI includes government data on housing supply, rental vacancy rates, construction costs, construction jobs, builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders and architectural billings from the American Institute of Architects.

  • San Antonio – 65.8 (Tie)
  • Miami – 65.8 (Tie)
  • New York – 65.5
  • Philadelphia – 63.8
  • Charleston, South Carolina – 60.3
  • Austin, Texas – 60.0

Hottest Markets for Financing

The Financial HMI includes government data on housing supply, rental vacancy rates, construction costs, construction jobs, builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders and architectural billings from the American Institute of Architects.

  • Minneapolis – 95.8
  • Omaha, Nebraska – 95.0
  • Richmond, Virginia – 94.5
  • Denver – 93.5 (Tie)
  • Kansas City, Missouri– 93.5 (Tie)
  • St. Louis – 93.5 (Tie)
  • Detroit – 92.5

Most Overvalued Housing Markets in U.S.

Patrick S. Duffy Jan. 30, 2024

Hawaiian island sunset on north shore. One of the most beautiful epic views i've witnessed.

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Tags: real estate , home prices , housing market , new home sales , existing home sales , Denver , economy , mortgages

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The myth of the housing bubble

It's time to face facts: Sky-high home prices are here to stay

Almost as soon as home prices began their unprecedented climb in 2020, doomsayers began warning of a looming crisis. The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst.

A litany of supposed catalysts was going to send prices into a tailspin: the “ Airbnbust ,” the sudden surge in mortgage rates , a flood of grifters and hucksters looking to make a quick buck in real estate. Bubble watchers forecast chaos, then sat back and waited. And waited. And waited.

I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? The answer remains a resounding no. More than three years after prices started to soar, the only thing that’s gone bust is the gloomy predictions. Despite some cooling in a handful of overheated markets such as Charlotte, North Carolina, and Austin, the median home-sale price increased by a respectable 4% nationwide in 2023, Redfin reported. The price for a typical home has risen by more than 47% since late 2019, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, a closely watched measure of housing costs. 

But maybe I’ve been posing the wrong question all along. The B-word implies an impending pop, a point when the combination of greedy speculation, unscrupulous behavior, and soaring prices brings everything crashing down. Barring a large-scale economic disaster, there’s no pop in sight. 

The staggering jump in home prices is concerning, to be sure. But it’s a function of a severe lack of supply, not a byproduct of investors swarming the market or shady lenders artificially juicing demand. Those looking for parallels to 2008 are grasping at straws — homeowners are in far better financial shape than they were the last time prices cratered, and homebuilders, rather than flooding the market with new properties, aren’t keeping pace with the sheer volume of millennials suddenly consumed by dreams of backyards and picket fences.

So if you’ve been waiting — maybe even cheering — for prices to plummet: Don’t hold your breath. 

Warning signs

A funny thing about bubbles is they don’t fall neatly into a single definition. Ask a dozen economists to sketch out their criteria, and you’ll probably get 12 different answers. But Mike Simonsen, the president of the housing research firm Altos Research, offered a useful way to think of a bubble’s life cycle in a post on X, formerly Twitter, late last year (which I’ve slightly paraphrased):

1. You got rich! Good for you! You did the hard work and got in early.

2. Hm. It seems like everyone is getting rich?

3. Wait. That asshole?! That guy is not smart, maybe even criminal.

For a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. There were the runaway prices: Before the pandemic, you could buy a median-price home in Las Vegas for about $281,300, according to Redfin. Good luck finding that kind of deal now — even with a dip from pandemic highs, the cost of a typical house there has swelled to $422,000, an eye-watering 50% increase. Similar stories have played out in Miami (70%), Boise, Idaho (40%), and Dallas (36%). The typical household would have to spend nearly 34% of its income to afford major homeownership expenses such as mortgage payments and property taxes, according to the data firm Attom, the highest percentage since 2007 and well beyond the 28% debt-to-income ratio that’s typically preferred by lenders.

Then there were the people getting rich. Speculators were using supercheap loans to buy homes, expecting to profit by selling to an even bigger fool; home flippers , aspiring megalandlords, and Airbnb owners flaunted their debt-funded miniempires on TikTok ; and seemingly everyone was signing up to be a real-estate agent . Even usually buttoned-up real-estate professionals were giving off bubble vibes: High-flying mortgage companies threw lavish parties featuring bands such as Imagine Dragons, while Zillow, the ubiquitous home-search site, morphed into one of the country’s biggest homebuyers — even though its acquisition math didn’t add up.

All the signs seemed to point to a bubble, and there were plenty of people predicting the “pop” was coming: In late 2022, the prominent Wall Street economist Ian Shepherdson forecast home prices to fall by as much as 20% the following year. Goldman Sachs expected a more modest, but still significant, decline of up to 10% from the peak. Countless headlines wondered whether home values were set to crash. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose every word threatens to move markets, said at a Brookings Institution event in 2022 that housing was in a “bubble” during the pandemic, with “prices going up at very unsustainable levels.” 

But there was no pop, no sudden collapse in home prices. Even with mortgage rates tripling and buyers retreating, values held up.

The gloomy oracles could even point to an instigator of the coming collapse. The Fed, led by Powell, began raising interest rates in spring 2022 to fight inflation, sending mortgage rates shooting upward . Mortgage rates kept rising through most of 2023, eventually reaching a 20-year high in October of nearly 8%, up from less than 3% during the depths of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Suddenly it wasn’t so cheap to borrow money, making it tougher for reckless investors to enter the market. Speculation is the oxygen for a market-frenzy fire, Rick Palacios Jr., the director of research and managing principal at John Burns Research and Consulting, told me. By hiking rates, the Fed cut off the air supply.

But there was no pop, no sudden collapse in home prices. Even with mortgage rates tripling and buyers retreating, values held up. To understand why, you have to look at the fundamentals — the deep-seated reasons all the “Bubble Boys,” doomsayers, and fear-mongering headlines are dead wrong.

Debunking the bubble

Rising prices, no matter how steep, aren’t enough to constitute a bubble. Prices also need to diverge from the fundamentals , or the basic components of supply and demand, that determine how much things cost. If the run-up in prices defies logical explanation or obscures sketchy business practices, watch out. In the years leading up to the global financial crisis, for instance, lenders came up with creative ways to boost demand: They devised predatory mortgages that left borrowers on the hook for impossibly high payments once their teaser rates expired and handed out so-called NINJA loans (no income, no job, and no assets). If you owned a home at that time, you might’ve felt like the only direction its value could go was up.

The recent housing-bubble theory was always going to age poorly because of one fact: The pandemic soaring prices were justified. Prices didn’t spiral out of control because we built too many homes or made it too easy to borrow money, like in 2008; they took off because there simply weren’t enough homes for all the creditworthy people who wanted to buy them.

It’s a savagely unhealthy housing market. But it’s also a market that just had too many people chasing too few homes.

For home prices to suddenly crash, there would have to be a pool of desperate sellers looking to offload their homes on the cheap — or, worse, losing them to the foreclosure process. Sure, speculators were loud and proud about their get-rich-quick schemes, but they were a vocal minority. And regular homeowners have “never looked this good” when it comes to their financial and credit health, Logan Mohtashami, the lead analyst at HousingWire and an outspoken critic of bubble alarmists, told me. Less than 4% of outstanding mortgages were delinquent at the end of the third quarter last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association , a near-record low. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the median credit score for people getting a new mortgage was a stellar 770, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (Lenders typically consider a score above 700 to be a marker of future success for a borrower.) Almost 79% of homeowners with a mortgage have locked in a rate below 5%, a Redfin analysis of data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency found. In the history of rates, that’s a pretty incredible deal. And nearly 40% of homeowners don’t even have to stress about mortgage payments at all, according to census data — they own their homes free and clear. 

Rather than facing a housing bubble, we’re staring down an entirely different crisis: a supply shortage that has regular buyers fighting just to break into the market. US homebuilders spent the decade after the global financial crisis building at about half the rate of the three decades prior, contributing to the housing crunch. Various estimates have pegged the national housing shortage anywhere between 2 million and 6 million homes. The supply constraint hit right as millennials, the largest living generation in the US, reached their prime homebuying years . Add in people’s sudden desire for a bigger house or a place of their own in the heat of the pandemic, and the recent surge in home prices seems less bubbly and more logical. The lack of inventory is the reason prices didn’t suddenly drop, even when mortgage rates shot up. Sure, buyers pulled back. But sellers pulled back even more, leaving the supply-demand imbalance in place . 

“It’s a savagely unhealthy housing market,” Mohtashami told me. “But it’s also a market that just had too many people chasing too few homes.” 

Staying high

It’s tempting to look for echoes of 2008 in today’s housing market. You might even be inclined to cheer on a crash in prices — all the better for everyone who feels locked out of homeownership. But cycles rarely repeat in the same way, Selma Hepp, the chief economist at CoreLogic, told me. Anything that could incite a housing crash probably wouldn’t leave average consumers in a position to suddenly pounce on all that excess inventory.

Fannie Mae now projects a modest 3.2% increase in home prices this year and a jump in home sales, along with a decline in mortgage rates. Goldman Sachs predicts a 5% rise in home prices . John Burns Research and Consulting doesn’t publish an exact forecast of home prices, but Palacios told me the firm expected to see a similar increase in the “low single digits.”

Perhaps the biggest threat to the housing market at large is a severe economic slowdown, one in which many people lose their jobs and can’t pay their mortgages. It’s notoriously difficult to estimate where the economy is headed, but right now, it’s roaring along, especially compared with other rich countries . Things aren’t perfect, but the vibes are definitely up . And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. Things would have to get so bad that banks would be forced to walk away from the mortgage-lending space almost entirely, as they did during the foreclosure crisis. If the market is cratering and nobody can get a mortgage to put a floor on prices, “that’s where you get pretty meaningful declines in asset prices,” Palacios said. 

There’s a silver lining baked into all this: Prices aren’t poised to drop, but the days of skyrocketing valuations appear to be behind us, Mohtashami told me. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.

After the past few years, the lingering fears of a sudden fallout are just a distraction from the bigger issues at hand. The bubble debate was fun; now it’s time to put it to bed.  

James Rodriguez is a senior reporter on Business Insider's Discourse team.

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Through our Discourse journalism, Business Insider seeks to explore and illuminate the day’s most fascinating issues and ideas. Our writers provide thought-provoking perspectives, informed by analysis, reporting, and expertise. Read more Discourse stories here .

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As Home Insurance Bills Go Up, Owners’ Coverage Is Going Down

Frequent natural disasters and high inflation have led insurers to raise premiums, and forced many customers to pare back their policies.

Robert Shiver stands in front of his home.

By Emily Flitter

Robert Shiver’s bill for his homeowner insurance jumped from $3,800 in 2022 to $8,000 in July. “I remember opening the bill and, honestly, laughing, like, ‘This is not feasible,’” he said.

Mr. Shiver, 40, who lives about 20 miles east of Tampa, Fla., did not pay the bill. Instead, he worked with his insurance agent to shave off parts of his coverage, lowering the estimate for how much the insurer would have to pay to potentially rebuild his house from around $710,000 to about $560,000.

Shrinking the coverage lowered his bill to just under $5,000, a huge relief, he said, since he would again be able to make his monthly mortgage and insurance payment.

In the insurance business, Mr. Shiver might now be considered “underinsured,” meaning that his policy may not be sufficient to cover a rebuild after catastrophic losses. Underinsurance is not a new problem, but it has become far more widespread and severe over the past three years, as rising inflation and climate change have created a highly volatile and unreliable insurance market and raised costs for homeowners — sometimes in unexpected ways.

Insurers’ losses from natural disasters topped $100 billion for the fourth straight year in 2023, and they are passing those costs on to property owners. High inflation has also forced insurers to raise rates to cover claims.

Some homeowners are nickel-and-diming their own coverage by forgoing protection against hurricanes or windstorms; finding ways to lower the replacement values of their properties, as Mr. Shiver did; or raising their deductibles. Others are discovering that their policies won’t fully cover the cost of rebuilding because of steep increases in the cost of materials, once disaster has already struck.

Colorado’s insurance commissioner, Michael Conway, discovered the extent of the underinsurance problem after a wildfire near Boulder destroyed close to a thousand homes in 2021. After getting calls from homeowners distressed that their policies wouldn’t fully cover the cost of rebuilding, the state’s Division of Insurance investigated and found that only 8 percent of policies in the areas affected by the fire pledged to cover rebuilding costs no matter how high they got. It also found that between one-third and two-thirds of all homes affected by the fire had been underinsured for rebuilding costs within a typical range.

To try to fix the problem, Mr. Conway and his team convened meetings late last year with insurance companies, builders and other groups to brainstorm ideas for making things easier for homeowners, but no plans have emerged so far.

“We’re very concerned about what those homeowners are experiencing with the affordability issues, and we’re absolutely sympathetic to the pressure that they’re feeling to find a way to afford their insurance coverage,” Mr. Conway said.

Julie Coffey did not realize she was underinsured until she ran out of money while trying to rebuild her house near San Francisco after it burned to the ground in August 2020 in one of several large wildfires that swept across parts of California that summer.

It took months before Ms. Coffey even knew what she would get from her insurer. By the time she began rebuilding her house in 2021, inflation was speeding up and building supplies were scarce. Her new home is missing key features she couldn’t afford, like a water softener and fencing.

“Within one month of living here, my sink is showing signs of rust,” Ms. Coffey said. “It’s crazy all the things you need to do to try and get close to where you were without worry or thought.”

Mark Friedlander, a spokesman for the Insurance Information Institute, a trade group, said home insurance premiums had cumulatively risen 32 percent from 2019 to 2023, while rebuilding and replacement costs had gone up 55 percent. Analysts for the group estimated that in 2023, home insurers experienced their biggest underwriting loss — the difference between collected premiums and paid-out claims — since 2011. Behind the loss were huge storms that caused more than $50 billion in damage that insurers had to pay for.

A survey last year by the institute and researchers for Munich Re, a reinsurer, found that 88 percent of U.S. homeowners had property insurance, down from 95 percent in 2019. Only 4 percent had flood insurance, even though 90 percent of the country’s natural disasters involve flooding.

Once insurers raise premiums, many homeowners are discovering that their lenders are willing to explore ways to make their payments more affordable. Banks that collect mortgage payments must ensure that borrowers’ coverage meets requirements set by the government-backed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac housing agencies, but are open to owners tweaking it within those requirements, said Pete Mills, the chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, the trade group for the mortgage industry.

Amy Bach, the executive director of United Policyholders, a nonprofit advocacy group that helps insurance consumers navigate tricky claims processes, said she found herself recommending a multitude of strategies these days to keep policies affordable.

“For most consumers, what they’re facing now is: What is the least worst option for me, given the pricing?” she said. She advises lowering the coverage on the contents of a house or cutting coverage for outbuildings like garages, sheds, pools or retaining walls.

“We had been saying, ‘Raise your deductible,’ but now, what does that mean?” Ms. Bach said. “My parents’ home on Long Island has a $33,000 wind deductible,” meaning they would have to pay that much out of pocket — a huge share of the cost of a new roof — before getting any help from their insurer.

Not everyone thinks letting borrowers shave off parts of their coverage is a good thing. Brian Marino, an insurance agent in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., said he worried that if homeowners carried only enough coverage to satisfy their lenders, the lenders could recoup what they needed after a disaster while borrowers were left unable to afford a complete rebuild.

“The bank is satisfied,” Mr. Marino said, “but they’re out on the street.”

Mr. Friedlander, the trade group’s spokesman, said bundling home and auto policies and making “deductible adjustments” were common ways to cut insurance costs, adding that the institute recommended working with an agent “to reduce the cost of your policy without reducing the levels of coverage.”

Homeowners aren’t the only ones slashing their coverage under pressure. The Peachtree Group, an Atlanta-based real estate investment company that invests in hotels, rental homes, office spaces and other properties around the country, expects deductibles on some of its properties to increase this year in response to rising insurance costs, said Charles Talbert, the company’s spokesman. That would leave it paying for more rebuilding costs.

Sue Savio, an insurance agent in Honolulu, said underinsurance had recently become widespread on Oahu. “We have many condominiums whose premiums would have doubled or tripled,” Ms. Savio said. But instead of paying those higher premiums, owners got rid of coverage for damage from hurricanes, since such storms don’t frequently hit Hawaii.

“Our last hurricane was 32 years ago,” Ms. Savio said.

Those who own their homes or other properties outright have much more leeway to decide whether or not to insure their properties. Some wealthy homeowners are willing to take the risk of being underinsured because they can afford to repair their properties themselves.

“I’ve talked to people that own their home outright and they’re choosing to forgo the wind damage. They’re keeping flood,” said Brian Gray, a managing director at UBS whose wealth management group serves some of Tampa’s wealthiest residents.

One of Mr. Gray’s clients agreed to a deductible of $1 million.

An earlier version of this article misstated Peachtree Group’s real estate assets. It invests in rental homes and office spaces; it does not own them.

How we handle corrections

Emily Flitter writes about finance and how it impacts society. More about Emily Flitter

The State of Real Estate

Whether you’re renting, buying or selling, here’s a look at real estate trends..

Smaller houses in subdivisions and exurbs are turning into a popular option  for people hoping to hold on to ownership in an increasingly expensive U.S. housing market.

Frequent natural disasters and high inflation have led home insurers to raise their premiums. That is forcing many customers to pare back their policies .

Black people make up about 14% of the American population. Some of them, wondering what it would be like to be part of a majority, are finding new homes in Africa .

Off-campus student housing complexes across the country are getting larger , and they are being built on prime parcels as close to campus as possible, as the sector draws more institutional and global investors.

People around the United States are building private ice skating rinks  — some with as little as a garden hose and patience.

Faith-based organizations are unlocking their real estate  to develop affordable housing, but they face challenges from reluctant local residents, wary lenders and strict zoning laws.

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